Portfolio — Consumer Data Science
Consumer
Growth
Analytics & Experimentation
Kraemer A. Lovelace · klovelace@gmail.com · glyphanalytics.com · User growth · Experimentation · Funnel analysis · Opportunity sizing
DAU
126M
↑ 18% vs prior period
WAU
284M
↑ 14%
D1 retention
38%
↑ 3pp
D7 retention
22%
→ flat
New users / day
1.4M
↑ 9%
Daily active users — trend & 7-day rolling avg
Indexed to period start. Weekly seasonality visible in raw DAU.
DAU 7-day rolling avg
DAU trending upward with weekly seasonality.
Retention curves by cohort
D0–D30 survival by acquisition month. Newer cohorts improving.
Mar 2024 Jan 2024 Nov 2023
Newer cohorts show improved D7 and D30 retention.
Growth accounting
DAU decomposed: new, resurrected, retained, churned.
New Resurrected Retained Churned
Retained users drive majority of DAU; churn stable.
Active experiments
12
across 4 surfaces
Ships in 90d
7
↑ 2 vs prior period
Win rate
58%
↑ 8pp
Avg DAU lift (winners)
+4.2%
compound across ships
Reading this panel: Lift estimates use causal inference methods — geo holdouts for large surface changes, regression discontinuity for time-based rollouts, standard A/B for most product features. CIs are 95%. Running experiments show sample size, not lift.
Experiment results log
Causal lift with 95% confidence intervals. Filter by outcome.
Filter
ExperimentSurfacePrimary metricLift95% CIStatus
Cumulative DAU lift — compounded ships
Index = 100 at period start. Each shipped winner compounds on prior baseline.
Compounded wins deliver 31-point index lift over period.
Install → D1 active
54%
↑ 4pp
D1 → D7 retained
38%
↑ 3pp
D7 → subscribed
8.2%
↑ 1.1pp
Overall conversion
1.7%
↑ 0.4pp
New user activation funnel
Weekly cohort indexed to 100 at install. Toggle by platform.
Platform
D1 activation by acquisition channel
Orange = organic / high-intent. Blue = paid. Gray = low-performing.
Organic and referral show highest activation rates.
User segment profiles
Behavioral clusters from first 30 days. Drives personalization and retention targeting.
Opportunity sizing model
Adjust levers to estimate incremental DAU and revenue from proposed product changes. Risk-adjusted value applies your win probability estimate.
+4pp
+2pp
1,400K
$0.08
75%
Incremental DAU
Incremental revenue / yr
Risk-adjusted expected value
Sensitivity of incremental DAU to lever improvements.